- Across 1995 to 2025, annual average regular gasoline prices and annual average WTI crude prices line up closely (R² = 0.93). The fitted line says each $10 per barrel of crude goes with about $0.31 per gallon at the pump.
- The raw crude cost per gallon (WTI divided by 42 gallons per barrel) was 43% of the retail price in 2020, 57% in 2022 and 50% in 2025.
- Month to month, changes in the retail price track the same month's crude change (correlation 0.74) and the prior month's (0.45), but not the change two months earlier (0.06).
- Motor fuel taxes add about 48 cents per gallon regardless of the crude price: 18.4 cents federal plus an average of 29.7 cents in state taxes.
01 Crude Oil and the Pump Price
One barrel of crude oil holds 42 gallons, so a crude price of $84 per barrel is $2.00 per gallon of raw crude. The table compares the annual average WTI price with the annual average retail price of regular gasoline for selected years.
EIA, WTI crude oil price (annual average, $/barrel) and U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Price (annual average). Crude cost per gallon = WTI ÷ 42.| Year | WTI ($/barrel) | Crude Cost ($/gal) | Regular Gas ($/gal) | Crude as Share of Pump Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | $30.36 | $0.72 | $1.48 | 49% |
| 2008 | $99.67 | $2.37 | $3.25 | 73% |
| 2016 | $43.33 | $1.03 | $2.14 | 48% |
| 2020 | $39.17 | $0.93 | $2.17 | 43% |
| 2022 | $94.91 | $2.26 | $3.95 | 57% |
| 2025 | $65.40 | $1.56 | $3.10 | 50% |
02 The Crude-to-Pump Relationship
Over the 31 years 1995 to 2025, the annual average retail price of regular gasoline follows the annual average WTI price closely. A least-squares line through the 31 points gives retail price ≈ $0.64 + $0.0313 × WTI, with R² = 0.93. Read as a rule of thumb, a $10 per barrel change in crude goes with about $0.31 per gallon at the pump, somewhat more than the $0.24 that the barrel-to-gallon conversion alone would suggest.
Calculated: least-squares fit of EIA annual average regular gasoline prices on annual average WTI prices, 1995–2025 (n = 31)The fitted line implies the following pump prices at different crude prices. The annual WTI average ranged from $14 to $100 per barrel over these years, so estimates outside that range are extrapolations and are not shown.
| Crude Oil Price | Fitted Regular Price | Annual Fuel Cost (507 gal) |
|---|---|---|
| $40/barrel | $1.89 | $959 |
| $60/barrel | $2.52 | $1,277 |
| $80/barrel | $3.14 | $1,594 |
| $100/barrel | $3.77 | $1,912 |
Estimate your vehicle's driving cost using official EPA fuel economy data.
Use the Calculator03 Timing
Retail gasoline prices do not move one for one with crude in the same week. Using monthly averages from December 2019 to February 2026 (74 months), the month-over-month change in the retail price has a correlation of 0.74 with the same month's change in the WTI spot price, 0.45 with the previous month's change, and 0.06 with the change two months earlier. Most of the pass-through therefore shows up within about a month, and by two months there is no remaining link in these data.
Calculated: correlation of month-over-month changes, EIA monthly WTI spot price (STEO data) against the monthly mean of EIA weekly retail regular gasoline prices, December 2019–February 2026. Monthly averages cannot show shorter delays within a month.04 The Fixed Part: Taxes
Motor fuel taxes do not change with crude oil. The federal tax on gasoline is 18.4 cents per gallon and the average of the 50 state rates was 29.7 cents in 2024, about 48 cents combined, or 16% of the 2025 average retail price of $3.10.
FHWA, Highway Taxes and Fees (federal rate); FHWA Highway Statistics Table MF-121T, 2024 reporting period (simple average of the 50 state gasoline rates); EIA 2025 annual average price05 Impact on Your Annual Fuel Cost
For a driver covering 12,000 miles per year at 23.7 MPG, every $10 per barrel change in crude oil goes with about $159 a year in fuel spending (507 gallons × $0.313). Drivers of efficient vehicles are less exposed: at the same price, a 40 MPG vehicle burns 300 gallons a year and a 16 MPG truck 750.
Calculated: 12,000 ÷ 23.672 = 507 gallons; × $0.313 per gallon per $10 barrel change (fit above). Fleet MPG: ORNL Transportation Energy Data Book, Edition 40, Table 4.3 (2020).06 Data Sources
- EIA: U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices, annual and weekly. eia.gov
- EIA: West Texas Intermediate crude oil price (annual and monthly, Short-Term Energy Outlook data). eia.gov/outlooks
- FHWA: Highway Taxes and Fees; Highway Statistics Table MF-121T. fhwa.dot.gov
- DOE/Oak Ridge National Laboratory: Transportation Energy Data Book, Edition 40, Table 4.3. tedb.ornl.gov