- Gas prices typically bottom out in January–February and peak in May–June, with an average seasonal swing of $0.25 to $0.50 per gallon.
- The spring price increase is driven by the switch to summer-blend gasoline and refinery maintenance, combined with rising summer driving demand.
- Prices generally decline from July through December as summer demand fades and refineries return to cheaper winter-blend fuel.
- Seasonal patterns can be overwhelmed by crude oil price swings, geopolitical events, or supply disruptions in any given year.
01 The Monthly Price Pattern
Analysis of EIA weekly retail gasoline price data over the past decade reveals a consistent seasonal pattern. The table below shows the average monthly gasoline price deviation from each year's annual average, calculated across 10 years of data.
EIA, "Weekly U.S. Retail Gasoline Prices, Regular Grade," 2014–2024. Monthly averages calculated from weekly data.| Month | Avg Deviation from Annual Mean | Relative Position |
|---|---|---|
| January | −$0.18 | Seasonal low |
| February | −$0.15 | Low |
| March | −$0.05 | Rising |
| April | +$0.06 | Rising |
| May | +$0.12 | Near peak |
| June | +$0.15 | Seasonal peak |
| July | +$0.10 | Declining |
| August | +$0.06 | Declining |
| September | −$0.02 | Below average |
| October | −$0.06 | Low |
| November | −$0.10 | Low |
| December | −$0.13 | Near low |
The typical January-to-June price increase is approximately $0.30 to $0.35 per gallon, though in some years the swing has exceeded $0.50. The pattern means that filling up in winter is typically $0.25 to $0.30 cheaper per gallon than in early summer.
02 Why Gas Prices Follow Seasonal Patterns
The EIA identifies three primary drivers of the seasonal gasoline price pattern:
EIA, "Gasoline Explained: Why Gasoline Prices Fluctuate"- Driving demand. Americans drive the most miles during summer months (June–August), increasing gasoline demand. The FHWA reports that summer VMT is roughly 10% higher than winter VMT.
- Refinery maintenance. Refineries undergo scheduled maintenance (turnarounds) in spring and fall, temporarily reducing gasoline supply precisely as demand begins to rise in spring.
- Fuel blend requirements. EPA regulations require a switch from winter-blend to summer-blend gasoline, which is more expensive to produce but reduces evaporative emissions.
Estimate your vehicle's driving cost using official EPA fuel economy data.
Use the Calculator03 The Summer Blend Factor
The EPA requires that gasoline sold from June 1 through September 15 meet lower Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) limits. This "summer-blend" gasoline requires additional refining steps and uses more expensive blendstocks, adding approximately $0.05 to $0.15 per gallon in production costs compared to winter-blend fuel.
EPA, 40 CFR Part 80: Regulation of Fuels and Fuel Additives, gasoline volatility (RVP) standardsRefineries begin the transition to summer-blend production in February and March, which coincides with the seasonal maintenance period. This dual constraint on supply helps explain why prices begin rising well before the peak summer driving season actually begins.
EIA, "This Week in Petroleum": seasonal refinery operations and blend transitions04 Impact on Your Annual Fuel Spending
For a driver consuming roughly 40 gallons per month (480 gallons per year), the seasonal price pattern means that winter fill-ups cost about $7 less per tank than summer fill-ups (assuming a $0.30 seasonal swing on a 15-gallon tank).
Calculated: $0.30/gal × 15-gallon fill-up = $4.50 difference per fill-up. Annual impact based on monthly consumption patterns.Over a full year, the seasonal pattern roughly balances out since you buy fuel in both high and low months. However, drivers who can shift more of their driving (or at least fuel purchasing) to lower-priced winter months may see modest savings. Filling up on Monday or Tuesday also tends to yield slightly lower prices, according to EIA weekly price cycle analysis.
EIA weekly retail gasoline price data: day-of-week price variation patterns05 When the Pattern Breaks
The seasonal pattern is an average tendency, not a guarantee. Several factors can overwhelm it in any given year:
- Crude oil price swings. A major change in crude oil prices can move gas prices by $0.50 to $1.00+ per gallon, dwarfing the seasonal swing.
- Geopolitical events. Conflicts affecting oil-producing regions can spike prices regardless of season (e.g., 2022 price spike).
- Hurricane disruptions. Gulf Coast hurricanes in August–September can shut down refineries and spike prices during what would normally be a declining period.
- Pandemic effects. The 2020 demand collapse sent prices plummeting in spring, completely inverting the normal seasonal pattern.
06 Data Sources
- EIA: Weekly Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices. eia.gov
- EIA: "Gasoline Explained: Why Gasoline Prices Fluctuate." eia.gov
- EPA: Gasoline Volatility (RVP) Regulations, 40 CFR Part 80. epa.gov
- FHWA: Traffic Volume Trends. fhwa.dot.gov