- EIA's forecast projects national average gasoline prices rising from $3.10/gallon in 2025 to $3.84/gallon in 2026 (a 23.9% increase), before easing to $3.35/gallon in 2027, still 8.1% above 2025.
- The 2026 forecast average would be the second-highest annual figure since 2020, behind only 2022's $3.97/gallon spike.
- Since EIA's July 2026 edition of this same forecast, the 2026 price projection has been revised 5.5% higher and the 2027 projection 8.4% higher, alongside an even larger upward revision to EIA's crude oil price assumptions, a measurable, EIA-published indication of forecast uncertainty from one edition to the next.
- Regionally, the West Coast (PADD 5) is projected to average $4.93/gallon in 2026, versus $3.40/gallon on the Gulf Coast (PADD 3), consistent with the existing regional price gap persisting throughout the forecast period.
01 Introduction
EIA's forecast projects national average gasoline prices rising from $3.10/gallon in 2025 to $3.84/gallon in 2026, a 23.9% increase, before easing to $3.35/gallon by 2027, still above where 2025 started. Every month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO): a detailed annual (and, in EIA's own tables, quarterly) forecast of energy prices built from EIA's own supply-and-demand modeling. It is one of the few sources where a claim about future gasoline prices can be checked against an actual government forecast rather than speculation. As of the September 2026 edition, that forecast projects a substantial increase in gasoline prices through 2026 followed by only a partial retreat through 2027. This article presents the annual and regional forecast, the assumptions behind it, and a quantified account of how much the forecast itself has changed since EIA's July 2026 edition.
U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 202602 The National Forecast: Annual Prices Through 2027
EIA's forecast shows regular-grade gasoline averaging $3.10/gallon in 2025, rising to $3.84/gallon in 2026, then easing to $3.35/gallon in 2027. Looking back further, the 2022 spike ($3.97/gallon) remains the highest annual average in this series; the 2026 forecast would come close to it, but not quite surpass it.
U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026, Table 2: Energy Prices (Retail Prices Including Taxes, Gasoline Regular Grade)| Year | Retail Price |
|---|---|
| 2020 (actual) | $2.18 |
| 2021 (actual) | $3.02 |
| 2022 (actual) | $3.97 |
| 2023 (actual) | $3.52 |
| 2024 (actual) | $3.31 |
| 2025 (actual) | $3.10 |
| 2026 (forecast) | $3.84 |
| 2027 (forecast) | $3.35 |
Estimate your vehicle's driving cost using official EPA fuel economy data.
Use the Calculator03 What's Driving the Forecast: Crude Oil Prices
EIA's gasoline price forecast is built on top of its crude oil price forecast. Since the July 2026 edition of this outlook, EIA has revised its crude oil price assumptions substantially higher, which flows directly through to the higher gasoline forecast covered in this article. This site does not have access to the narrative "Overview" section of the September 2026 report, so the specific published rationale for that revision isn't quoted here; readers who want EIA's own explanation should consult the full STEO report directly.
U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026, Table 2: Energy PricesCrude oil is forecast to rise again in 2026 after easing in 2025: Brent crude averages $69/barrel in 2025, rises to $91/barrel in 2026, then eases to $74/barrel in 2027, still above 2025's level, echoing the same pattern as the retail gasoline forecast.
U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026, Table 2: Energy Prices ("Crude Oil," Brent Spot Average)Across 2020–2027, WTI crude and retail gasoline prices move together closely (correlation of 0.98 across these 8 annual data points), and a simple regression of the two series implies that every $1 increase in the price of a barrel of WTI crude corresponds to roughly 3.3 cents per gallon of additional retail gasoline price in this series.
Calculated by the authors from EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026, Table 2: linear regression of annual WTI crude oil price against annual regular-grade retail gasoline price, n=8 years (2020–2027); slope = $0.033/gal per $1/bbl; correlation coefficient = 0.98. With only 8 annual data points, this is a small sample; treat the specific slope as illustrative rather than a precise pass-through rate.04 How Confident Should You Be? The Forecast Already Moved
A forecast is not a guarantee, and comparing two real editions of EIA's own outlook makes that easy to demonstrate: the figures in the September 2026 STEO, analyzed throughout this article, are substantially higher than the July 2026 STEO figures this same article previously cited, two editions apart, with an August edition in between that this site does not have on file.
This site's own comparison: July 2026 figures as previously published in this article, versus the September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook analyzed here. This is not an EIA-published comparison table.| Metric | July 2026 Edition | September 2026 Edition | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail gasoline, 2026 avg. | $3.64 | $3.84 | +5.5% |
| Retail gasoline, 2027 avg. | $3.09 | $3.35 | +8.4% |
| Brent crude, 2026 avg. | $82/bbl | $91/bbl | +11.0% |
| Brent crude, 2027 avg. | $65/bbl | $74/bbl | +13.8% |
05 Regional Forecast: Which Regions See the Biggest Swings
EIA also forecasts gasoline prices separately for each of the five Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADDs): the East Coast (PADD 1), Midwest (PADD 2), Gulf Coast (PADD 3), Rocky Mountain (PADD 4), and West Coast (PADD 5). The same national rise-then-ease pattern shows up in every region, but the price levels differ enormously and consistently.
U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026, regional regular-grade retail gasoline price series (PADD 1–5)| Region | 2025 Avg. | 2026 Avg. | 2027 Avg. |
|---|---|---|---|
| East Coast (PADD 1) | $2.98 | $3.71 | $3.18 |
| Midwest (PADD 2) | $2.95 | $3.63 | $3.16 |
| Gulf Coast (PADD 3) | $2.68 | $3.40 | $2.89 |
| Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) | $3.03 | $3.78 | $3.33 |
| West Coast (PADD 5) | $4.10 | $4.93 | $4.48 |
| U.S. Average | $3.10 | $3.84 | $3.35 |
The Gulf Coast (PADD 3) is forecast to remain the cheapest region every year of the forecast, while the West Coast (PADD 5) remains the most expensive by a wide and consistent margin: $1.53 per gallon more than the Gulf Coast in 2026, a gap that persists across the whole forecast period.
Calculated: $4.93 − $3.40 = $1.5306 Diesel and Other Fuels
EIA's forecast covers more than gasoline. Diesel and heating oil, in particular, are projected to increase more sharply in percentage terms than gasoline in 2026, before easing in 2027.
U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026, Table 2: Energy Prices| Fuel | 2025 Avg. | 2026 Avg. | 2027 Avg. | 2025→2026 Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gasoline, Regular | $3.10 | $3.84 | $3.35 | +23.9% |
| On-Highway Diesel | $3.66 | $5.07 | $4.40 | +38.5% |
| Heating Oil | $3.63 | $5.10 | $4.31 | +40.5% |
| Jet Fuel (wholesale) | $2.18 | $3.56 | $2.88 | +63.3% |
Diesel's 2026 average ($5.07) is 38.5% higher than its 2025 average ($3.66), a larger percentage increase than gasoline's 23.9%, consistent with diesel's greater sensitivity to the same refining-margin pressure affecting the gasoline forecast. Jet fuel, at the wholesale level, moved even more sharply, up 63.3% over the same span.
Calculated: ($5.07 − $3.66) / $3.66 = 38.5%; ($3.56 − $2.18) / $2.18 = 63.3%07 Methodology and Caveats
Every figure in this article comes directly from a single EIA publication, with light calculation (percentages, differences, the regression in Section 03) added and disclosed throughout.
U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026- This is a forecast, not a guarantee. Section 04 shows this exact forecast moved substantially between two editions; it will likely move again before the periods it covers actually arrive.
- EIA updates the STEO monthly. This article is built on the September 2026 edition specifically. Readers checking this after several months have passed should look for a more recent STEO release, which will reflect newer information than this article can.
- This edition uses EIA's annual figures, not quarterly ones. The data pulled for this refresh did not include quarter-by-quarter detail, so this article no longer breaks the forecast down by quarter the way an earlier version did. Readers who want quarterly granularity can find it directly in EIA's own STEO tables.
- The regression in Section 03 is this site's own calculation, not an EIA-published figure, built from EIA's own annual data to illustrate the crude-to-retail relationship, and only covers 8 years, too few to be a robust long-run estimate of oil-price pass-through.
- This site does not have an archive of past STEO reports, so it cannot verify how accurate EIA's forecasts have historically been against actual outcomes. It can only show how much this specific forecast changed between two specific, verified editions (July 2026 and September 2026).
08 Data Sources
Every figure in this article comes from a U.S. government source. No proprietary, estimated, or third-party data was used.
- U.S. Energy Information Administration. Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026. Table 2 (Energy Prices) and regional regular-grade retail gasoline price series (PADD 1–5). eia.gov/outlooks/steo